Blue States, Red States and Paid Sick Leave Laws

At this most wonderful time of the year, I was wondering how PSL jurisdictions voted in the 2016 presidential election. Conventional political wisdom suggests that PSL jurisdictions would be the deepest of blues on the political color spectrum. Let’s fact-check that, to use a Punditry 101 phrase.

For each PSL munballot-1294935_640icipality, I used voting data for the county in which it is located. Rounding percentages to the nearest whole number, here is what I found:

Six of the seven PSL states were blue, half giving Secretary Clinton more than 60% of the vote (CA, MA, VT). President-elect Trump won Arizona by a plurality of 49% of the votes.

The first two PSL jurisdictions ever—the District of Columbia and San Francisco—were very deep blue, casting 91% (D.C.) and 85% of votes for Secretary Clinton.

All eight California counties with PSL municipalities voted for Secretary Clinton by very wide margins in all but one county:

San Francisco County (San Francisco) 85%
Alameda County (Berkeley, Emeryville, Oakland) 79%
Los Angeles County (Long Beach, Los Angeles, Santa Monica) 71%
San Diego County(San Diego) 56.

Six of seven New Jersey counties with PSL municipalities voted for Secretary Clinton by wide margins:

Essex County (Bloomfield, East Orange, Irvington, Montclair, Newark) 77%
Hudson County (Jersey City) 77%
Union County (Elizabeth, Plainfield) 68%
Mercer County (Trenton) 66%
Passaic County (Passaic, Patterson) 60%
Middlesex County (New Brunswick) 58%

President-elect Trump won Morris County (Morristown) by a 49.7% plurality of the votes.

Four of the five counties in New York City were very deep blue:

The Bronx 89%
Kings County 80%
New York (Manhattan) 87%
Queens County 76%

President-elect Trump won Richmond County (Staten Island) with 57% of the vote.

Two of the three Washington counties with PSL municipalities voted for Secretary Clinton: King County (Seattle and SeaTac), 72%; Pierce County (Tacoma), a 49.7% plurality. President-elect Trump won Spokane County (Spokane) by a 49.9% plurality of the votes.

Both Minnesota counties with PSL municipalities voted for Secretary Clinton: Ramsey County (St. Paul), 66%; Hennepin County (Minneapolis), 64%.

Secretary Clinton won 83% of the votes in Philadelphia County and 84% in Chicago.

The two counties with PSL laws both voted for Secretary Clinton: Montgomery County (MD), 75%; Cook County (IL), 65%.

In sum, 36.8 PSL jurisdictions voted for Secretary Clinton (giving her .8 for NYC); 3.2 voted for President-elect Trump. The conventional political thinking was 92% correct.

In case you were wondering…at this most wonderful time of the year!